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jles
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No, I admittedly presented an oversimplified version of our relationship with China, and am not trying to suggest that is our current state of affairs. It’s just heading more and more that way over time, and we should consider the potential consequences of it. I think.
But, I don’t think I ignored that China is thriving in a world economy, quite the opposite. And, I think your suggestion that we’d somehow be equipped for a devaluation relative the yuan, and suddenly ready to rev up our manufacturing base, is somewhat oversimplified as well. That will cause massive contraction and forced re-allocation of resources. We need China for their stuff way more than they need us for our money. The only way we hold the end of our bargain is to keep the dollar valuable by making stuff here that other people want to buy.
But, one thing is definitely agreed, I hope we’re never faced with this situation. But, I think it’s on us to consider ways to potentially avoid it, rather than just presume it never will be a problem.
Anyway, this conversation was probably MUCH too long for this site. Appreciate you taking the time to engage me, and keep up the phenomenal work you do for this site Godsauce. I’ll go back to quietly enjoying and occasionally weighing in….
Fair enough…. You’re probably right about that. I don’t know if I could say it is dishonest, but it certainly conveys these arguments in a manipulated, over-characterized light….which opens the door wide open for mis-interpretations the likes of which you illustrated well above.
“DEM DAMN CHINAMEN! TRY-NA RUIN AMERICA!” is a likely reaction at a Glen Beck rally.
Hah
That is a fair argument. My interpretation of what we did to “turn our backs on the principals that made us great”, particularly with regard to China, is exporting our manufacturing base overseas, and making 70% of our economy rely on the service sector. Now, everyone in America is a “paper pusher” or “burger flipper”, and that is not what made us great, but rather, is a symptom our our success, and the belief that we’re “above” the manufacturing jobs we outsource to China.
Healthcare is a low, random, blow. But, most projections (including the CBO after 10 years) do believe that the cost of this will add to our deficit over time. So, that isn’t great for our debt crisis. But, you’re right, it’s more of a social moral issue. So, maybe instead of now entering our 3rd war, we can cut some military spending and make Healthcare coverage more affordable? Don’t we owe more to uninsured Americans than we do Libyans, Iraqis or Afghanis? I think we do.
Overall though, I see your point, and just slightly disagree. Hopefully I was able to make you see mine as well.
Hey, I hope you’re right! But, I don’t really see where they’re going to get billions of dollars from to rebuild their country that is suffering from a nuclear meltdown.
This is for Godsauce at 2:29pm
Yes, the Chinese economy is largely manufacturing based…. and the U.S economy is no longer. Their primary investments are in U.S Securities, and, as we continue to print more dollars out of thin air, the “value” of those investments is depleted. I agree that the world would have rampant inflation (dollar based inflation that is…other currencies will survive). But, where I disagree with your argument is that “they would be unable to fall back on their investments”. As you already stated, China is making the things that the U.S, and the world, actually needs. They are the manufacturers. The investment of theirs that will actually pay off is their investment in the manufacturing base of their country, because in the end, they can just supply themselves with what they need to survive.
The way the world is set up now (VERY simplistically) is like there are 5 people on an island, 4 Chinese, and 1 American. The 4 Chinese catch fish, clean fish, cook fish, and serve fish, and the Americans role is to consume the fish. In return the American gives those Chinese an I.O.U (treasury bond). At some point, once the Chinese realize that the American I.O.U is worth far less than advertised, they’re going to just start fishing for themselves.
So, I don’t think they’re going to collect by force, or start a war… they’re just simply going to stop buying U.S Treasury bonds, and keep supplying the world with the goods they need (and supplying themselves with the goods they need). We, on the other hand, don’t have that type of manufacturing infrastructure to fall back on (anymore).
That’s how I see it! Again, I sincerely apologize for discussions like this on this site.
this is for ptsmith_vt on the 2:24 post:
No, China isn’t calling any debt now…. but if we keep printing dollars out of thin air, I don’t think it’s far-fetched to be concerned that they would. Or, at the very least, they would stop buying our treasury bonds (which, they already started being net-sellers of). So, no, they’re not going to come over here and “break our legs”…. they just going to stop buying our bonds, and the value of our dollar is going to free-fall, because we’ll have nobody else to buy our bonds in their absence. Same is true with Japan.
“the US owes enough that China can’t kill the US to send a message.” – I don’t understand what this means….
Sorry… we can stop this conversation. It feels wrong on this site! But, I do enjoy these discussions in general… just on other sites.
I’m responding to your 2:13 post cause I can’t reply anymore.
I will agree with you that it’s misleading in the ad, and could cause people to believe we owe China way more money than we do…. but, we do still owe them more money than we owe anybody else.
And, why is that scenario ridiculous? We owe them money… it’s ridiculous if they ask us to pay them back? I’ll change the scenario for you with something I think is way less ridiculous. Japan is the second largest creditor to the United States. Japan just suffered one of the worst natural disasters in history. Is Japan going to keep borrowing money in order to spend it on rebuilding, like they’ve been doing for the past 20 years (which has resulted in a 20 year bear market), or, are they going to say, “Hey, U.S, we’re PRETTY screwed over here… think you guys can pay us back some of the $900 Billion you owe us? We KINDA need it.” I don’t really see that as far-fetched at all….. although, Japan’s history suggests they’ll continue to be idiots and borrow more in order to spend. But, if there was ever a situation that may make them consider changing their ways… this would be it.
So I have a question for you. Where exactly do you see the logic in this ad breaking down? If they call us on our debt, and we default (cause we certainly can’t pay it back at this pace)…. wouldn’t we see a dramatic decline in the value of the dollar relative to the yuan, which, theoretically, could make the Chinese economy larger than ours by 2030 (isn’t it already predicted to be bigger by then anyway?).
What? That’s not true at all. It’s saying that what we’re currently trying to do to get out of a recession is the classic way that many other world hegemons before us have fallen. We’re printing American dollars out of thin air. And, when you do that, you dissuade people from buying bonds backed by American dollars (because if we keep printing them, each dollar is worth less down the road).
So, if China is the largest holder of our debt and buys more bonds than anyone else, what happens if they say “Pay Us?” I think that’s the real point of this commercial. We can’t, nor do we have any plans to be able to, pay off what we owe people. And, if they actually call us out on that… we’ll be in trouble.
Hah… I’m not really looking to start a e-argument here over this stupid ad…. but, why do you think this is ignorant?
If China is the largest holder of our debt, what happens if they just stop buying our bonds (especially since it seems like the 2nd largest holder, Japan, isn’t really able to buy anymore)? What happens if China actually wants us to pay them back the money we already owe them? We’ll default, and the value of the dollar will plummet, and that will put China in a prime position to take over as the new world hegemon….which…. I believe… is what that ad was trying to characterize. What part of that is “ignorant”? I’ll agree that it may be slightly exaggerated… but, ignorant?
You’re right… but I think the point is that of all entities to whom we owe money, we owe the most to China.
Man… my Libertarian viewpoints are really starting to isolate me from people… I thought that was neither racist nor insane.
China is the largest holder of our debt, and we’re actively printing more dollars to cope with our debt issue. Why would anybody buy our bonds if we just print money out of thin air? And China is predominately filled with Chinese people….so is that why it’s racist?
I don’t like talking politics or economics on this site.
I logged in just to say how much I enjoyed that post. Well done.
Breeeeee Bop ap Dodapp NOPE
Cheryl’s Christmas wish seemed insincere
Star Disagreements
Ghostrelocators
“Party Grandma’s house smells like asparagus and cocaine Mommy!” – you
Dr. Sara Tancredi definitely LOVED taking it from behind
so is hoggish greedly
So is Louis Anderson!
“ENOUGH! Let’s go have a beach party!”
Steven knows this is best for the kids in the long run
























Please don’t stop doing these